Israel Hamas Conflict In Long Lens Focus

Map of Israel and Gaza Region

Wherever you are in the world, by now you've heard of the Hamas incursion into Israel and the ongoing conflict in southern Israel. Many have theorized that this is not just a local incursion and is a prelude to a larger attack. This blog agrees with the perspective that this was a well-organized, long-planned operation by Hamas which was facilitated by one or more external actors. 

Aleks at Black Mountain Analysis (BMA) writes about geopolitics in Europe and Asia. During the last two years, he has covered the conflict in Ukraine extensively. Aleks, who is located in Serbia, also comments on other topics of geopolitical importance. He published this article today from which I will include a few excerpts below. 

BMA's analysis is eye-opening to those in the region of conflict and to other allies of Israel. BMA is neutral in this conflict. If, or when, this conflict widens, we shall see if this analysis is correct. 

Regarding whether or not this is a brief conflict: 

I can now fully confirm that what is going on is the full and final escalation of the situation around Israel. It is dead serious. Not only for the Israelis and the Palestinians, but for the whole region. The question is not whether it will blow up. It will blow up full scale. The question is how big that “full scale” explosion will be, and what countries will be affected in it.

 Regarding the Iranian Quds forces, who BMA theorizes organized the Hamas attack: 

"They are organized in several sections. There are publicly known special forces. And there are also covertly organized, let’s say undercover-acting, agents in the tens of thousands, all across the Arab world and Israel. Their purpose is to organize and prepare an all-out war of the axis of resistance against Israel, in what is essentially most of the Muslim world around Israel. We can think of them as thousands of active agents, preparing, organizing, and coordinating militias and governments around Israel for the final blow. And we can think of thousands of sleeper cells, only waiting for a prepared sign that would make them execute a predefined and pre-communicated sequence of actions.

Actions with one single purpose. Bringing an end to Israel." 

Keep in mind that phrase above: "...we can think of thousands of sleeper cells, only waiting for a prepared sign that would make them execute a predefined and pre-communicated sequence of actions." 

Where else might those sleeper cells be located? 

Let's continue with BMA's article: 

"What just happened against Israel means only one thing. Israel will mobilize everything and destroy Gaza. It remains to be seen whether it will be occupied or simply leveled with other means, but it will be destroyed. Whoever started the current operation did a perfect planning job. And this means, it was clear to him that Gaza will be destroyed. In fact, it was part of the plan. A sacrifice.

The destruction and/or occupation of Gaza is unacceptable for the Arab neighbors. My friends… We can expect the region to be blown up pretty soon."

 Those who have followed this blog and its sources over the years will not be astounded by the above revelations. In fact, we began theorizing about this after the 9/11 attacks in the United States. 

Continuing with BMA's zinger of a conclusion: 

"I assume that Iran now has all the confidence to be able to defeat Israel conventionally, since the United States is essentially disarmed. Any moves of the Americans in support of Israel will be a disaster for the Americans. The United States simply can’t afford a war against Iran at the present time, since most of its logistics resources are bogged down in Ukraine and against China." 

Please read that paragraph again. 

Of course, BMA can be partly or fully wrong in its analysis. But we would do well to consider it. Especially since Iran has advanced drone capabilities (due at least in part to its shooting down and/or capturing advanced US drones in several separate incidents over the years:   see here   and see here   and here ).  And we know that Iran has been a supplier of advanced drones to Russia during its Ukraine conflict.  

Why are drones so important to this analysis? Because drones represent the current adaptation of warfare. They are very mobile against ground forces which are much slower to move and react; they are hard to detect; very hard to shoot down; effective against tanks (the Israeli Army's warfare is tank-based) as well as infantry; relatively cheap to produce vs. Western anti-aircraft missiles; and can be produced at scale. 

Recent articles from the Western media about drones redefining war tactics:   Here     Here     Here  

Taking what BMA has theorized, and what we have seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is the opinion of this blog that Quds/Hamas/Hezbollah have learned much from the current conflict in Eastern Europe, and will use non-traditional, asymmetric warfare tactics (as is their custom throughout the decades) to fight the the large, traditional-warfare trained ground troops of the Israeli army. 

As we have seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, well-organized distributed small mobile groupings can launch cheap drones, which change direction and drop loitering ammunition at scale, to fight ground based troops and defeat even the best "impenetrable" Western tanks. 

Where are all these drones? you ask. In the tunnels and bunkers under Gaza, the Palestinian territory, Lebanon and Iran. No, we don't currently have bunker busters powerful enough to destroy deep-underground tunnels, although we can destroy the entrances (if we can find them). It would be a literal game of whack-a-mole using bunker-busters worth millions of dollars against hundreds of holes in the ground, emanating from a warren of tunnels which could be re-dug again. 

At least, if I was a commander of a smaller force with magnitudes less money at hand, but with technical expertise at hand and access to raw materials, I'd work this way.