Analysis: IDF Insider Information and History of the Conflict

The Fog of War Lifted, Just A Bit

This is the promised analysis of the "IDF Insider's" story, from my earlier article here. First, I'm well aware the entire "IDF Insider" narration may be 100% fabricated propaganda. Based on the first week of this conflict, the IDF has not appeared to be very organized, and not well-informed; they were caught flat-footed by this attack, the biggest intelligence failure in Israel in 70 years -- which Egypt may have warned about a week earlier (Israel denies this), although PM Netanyahu denies this.  Hamas fighters even were openly practicing in Gaza. At this point I'm not sure how competent or well-informed an IDF insider is, even if this is an accurate transcription of his comments. However, I will analyze a few of the more interesting comments. 

We've been subjected to an intensive, red-hot propaganda barrage over the last week. Both sides of the Israel-Hamas conflict are using war crimes by the other side as justification for their actions. Nothing is too heinous to show on camera. Of course, a lot of it is exposed as fake after initial publication, but truth is not too important for the war porn machine. 

Yet, embedded in this firehose of propaganda have been tiny kernels of truth. The IDF insider's story, while clearly having certain biases, nonetheless tells us many interesting things. Understanding these truths clearly requires an understanding of the politics and history of this area. 

Since some readers may not be familiar with the history of this conflict, let's take a quick look at that. (This is a long and very complex issue and this brief treatment can not hope to address it fully. Check the sources linked below for more details from both sides.)   

The conflict has been ongoing for literally thousands of years. This latest iteration has its roots 100 years ago when European Jews fled Europe to the former Ottoman region known as Palestine. 

Palestine was among former Ottoman territories placed under UK administration by the League of Nations in 1922. All of these territories eventually became fully independent States, except Palestine. The “Balfour Declaration” of 1917 supported “establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people."  From 1922 to 1947, large-scale Jewish immigration to Palestine took place, mainly from Eastern Europe. Arabs resisted the immigration and conflicts broke out. In 1947, the UN proposed (Resolution 181) partitioning Palestine into two independent States, one Palestinian Arab and the other Jewish, with Jerusalem internationalized (split). Conflicts continued, and in 1967, Israel annexed the Gaza strip, the West Bank of the Jordan, and East Jerusalem. The UN Security Council Security Council proposed Resolution 242 (1967) in an effort to achieve peace. In 1973 after another conflict broke out, the UN proposed  Security Council Resolution 338 to set the conditions for peace negotiations. It didn't work. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Liberation Organization had organized and began attacking and shelling Israel. In 1982, after the attempted assassination of Israel's ambassador to Britain, Israel attacked the PLO and Fatah in Lebanon and drove them out of artillery range. The period between 1987 and 1992 was the First Intifada (Palestinian uprising) over Israel's occupation of Gaza and the West Bank.  In 1993, Israel and the PLO agreed on the Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements (DOP or “Oslo Accord”) which brought about joint recognition of the two governments. Permanent status negotiations were deferred, and finally held in 2000 at Camp David and in 2001 in Taba, but yielded no agreements. In 2000, Israeli politician Ariel Sharon visited Al-Haram Al-Sharif (the Temple Mount) in Jerusalem. Palestinians regarded this as a blasphemous provocation and began the second Intifada. Israel then began the construction of a West Bank separation wall and other border walls and defenses. In 2005, Israel ceded Gaza back to the Palestinians. 

For more about the modern history of Israel and Palestine, click these archived links: UN timeline  -  IDF timeline of Lebanese war  - DW account of the two Intifadas  

It is eye-opening to note that during the Second Intifada, Israel lost a total of 1330 people and the Palestinians lost a total of 3330 people over five years of fighting. Both sides have lost that many in a week of fighting during this latest conflict. This is a much, much bigger conflict. 

Back to the IDF insider information. his bias is clear, but out in the open so we can analyze his comment in view of that.  For example, we know that "Israel initially gave Gaza its freedom" is not the whole story; Israel had seized this territory first, before giving it back. That being said, the Palestinians in the past few decades view everything Israel does as a provocation, have launched rockets for years into Israel, and they did initiate this particular recent conflict. 

"Gaza's biggest border is Egypt (land and sea). Egypt also imposes a blockade on Gaza because it was discovered that Hamas was planning terrorist actions in Egypt." This is likely true; Hamas is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was kicked out of Egypt entirely in a military coup, after they had seized power from the elected government over a decade ago during the so-called "Arab Spring". 

"When Anwar Sadat agreed to peace with Israel, we gave him everything he wanted back." More or less true; but that is Egypt, not Palestine. The Palestinian problem is much harder to resolve because both sides claim the same lands, and both claim Jerusalem as their capital. Also, Egypt is not nearly as Islamist as Hamas.  

"The West Bank is clearly a different story because Israel violated agreements with the Palestinians."  The IDF insider admits that Israel violated the agreement UN SC 338. 

"Netanyahu’s government was about to be kicked out in the next election. And now everybody in Israel has become more extreme because of this. Hamas just pushed the process back another 50 years." This is unfortunately likely true. Netanyahu was on the political ropes, fighting for "reforms", and some are speculating this is why he missed the signs of a massive attack from the south. And, this conflict will harden the opinions of populations on both sides and throughout the Arab and Western worlds. I don't expect any moderating diplomatic overtures from the US State Department. Or from Europe, for that matter; Brussels will follow the US' lead. 

"Somebody in the background wants to keep the Palestinian problem alive, which is the reason that the Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza cannot get any Arab passport. Many Palestinians desire passports from Arab countries so they can leave the West Bank and Gaza. The Arab League insists on keeping them refugees." Largely true now, but Palestinians have in the past been allowed to emigrate in smaller numbers. Keeping Palestinians in Gaza unfortunately is a valuable bargaining chip; it increases the political capital of the PLO and Hamas, as well as other Arab League members; and it also keeps the Gazans refugees which generates global sympathy for their cause. 

It is well known that Arab states do not want a large influx of possibly millions of Palestinian refugees. They are rightly wary of large refugee groups, which consume a massive amount of resources, and can be an extremely destabilizing factor. For example, Palestinians in Egypt a couple of decades ago attempted to stage a coup, but failed. Palestinians in Lebanon overthrew the government and inflicted violent raids on the population (side note: Lebanon used to be a Christian nation. See Brigitte Gabriel's autobiography, "Because They Hate".) 

Also, the Arab League might want to keep "the Palestinian issue" alive to cause enough trouble to force Israel and the US back to the bargaining table but with a better deal for them. 

Finally, the Arab League member states recognize that if the Palestinians ever do leave their land, Israel is likely to claim it as their own permanently and never allow the refugees to return. This is possibly the main reason why they now refuse to allow Gazans to leave anywhere.  

As to the claim that Palestinians desire to leave Gaza: That's likely true. It is a problem for the Arab League to solve, because up until this latest attacks, hundreds of thousands of Gazans passed over the Israeli border, and many worked in Israel. Egypt has one opening in their border with Gaza and as soon as this latest round of hostilities broke out, they sealed it and will not allow anyone from Gaza into Egypt. 

"Israeli Arabs...don’t want to mix with the Palestinian Arabs in Gaza or the West Bank." Maybe so, this is not proven. If true it is more likely an issue of cultural, economic and language divergence, even though Israeli Arabs speak Arabic and most are Muslim. 

---- End of IDF Insider's comments ----

The IDF insider's comments provide an overall idea of one Israeli's feelings about these matters at the outset of this conflict. Over time, expect opinions on both sides to change. This is a very old, complex, and extremely emotional conflict which is not likely to be resolved soon. However, global power structures are shifting. Many diplomatic  conversations are taking place in the BRICS+ and Arab League. Saudi Arabia and Iran have just recently reconciled. These conversations give hope that soon, a regional brokered peace plan will be offered. Given the public statements of these countries, any peace plan would be based on the UN two-state solution. 

One way a peace plan might move forward is through the UN Security Council, of which Russia and China are permanent members. I do not expect either Israel or the United States to adopt a peace plan offered by China and Russia, so that path may be a dead end, but the regional powers in Saudi, Iran and Egypt may work to bring a plan forward. Turkey does not seem to be much of an influence in this situation, possibly because Erdogan spent all his political capital recently in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and partly because of his own rapidly declining health. 

I could be wrong about all of this. However, it is clear that the alliances have shifted radically in the Middle East over the past 2 years. The power of diplomacy in this highly conflicted region has gradually shifted away from the United States in the past decade. Other regional and global powers are coming forward with messages of peace and ideas for resolving the conflicts.

We shall see what develops.