Current Situation Israel-Gaza Conflict Oct 15 2023

Today in the situational development:

* Israel has postponed its ground offensive into Gaza.  

* Israel is dropping an estimated 1000 bombs per day on Gaza, both precision-guided bombs and unguided iron bombs. 

* Hamas is able to overwhelm the Iron Dome with rocket swarm attacks

* Hamas claims it is able to target and blow up Israeli Merkava tanks 

* An estimated one million residents of  northern Gaza have relocated to the southern half in response to Israel's announcement to evacuate the northern half

* Egypt is rumored to be taking some refugees into the Sinai

* Western countries are discussing taking up to a million refugees 

First, it's clear that Israel has postponed the much talked of Gaza ground invasion. 

    Perhaps they've taken a look at the situation on the ground and decided there is too much risk in such an action. Some commentators have speculated the IDF has "cold feet". 

    Perhaps they're stymied by lack of guns, shells, uniforms and/or body armor 

    Perhaps the weather has affected ground operations, as there was rain and flooding in Tel Aviv 

    Perhaps they did not actually have a plan and need more time for planning. 

First, the weather. In the eastern Mediterranean regions. the weather is rarely severe. In the last 2 days, there has been flooding in Tel Aviv, and dust storms in eastern Israel. However, these are not of a nature to disrupt a military operation for a week. Therefore, the weather is an excurse, not a reason. 

Second, about the IDF not having a plan. This is quite possible. The IDF was in near total disarray during the Hamas invasion of Oct 7, its intelligence systems dark, cameras disabled, and troops caught completely by surprise, literally asleep, many of its officers killed very early. It took several days for IDF and the Israeli public to determine the extent of the attack, what exactly happened, how many were killed, how many survived, and to identify the dead. It is painfully obvious at this point that the Israeli military badly underestimated the threat from Hamas, ignored several warnings beforehand, and had become disorganized after a long period of relative peace, feeling themselves secure. Of course they had no plan of response for anything like this; the attack showed capabilities that no one knew Hamas had. 

Third, lack of shells. With the war in Ukraine having taken all the 155-mm shells that the West and its allies could scrape together from around the globe, there are probably none of these to send to Israel. For now, Israel needs different munitions, like bombs that are dropped from planes, and the missiles used by its Iron Dome. Israel has stockpiles of some of the shells and guns it needs. However, the current rate of expenditure is many times that of Ukraine, and the US will not be able to manufacture replacements fast enough when the existing supply runs out. Also, if and when the IDF enters Gaza, they may be in need of 155-mm shells. Unfortunately for Israel, there are none to give them.